Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Update : Gold Passes $1,400 an Ounce

Gold passes $1,400 an ounce on inflation concerns and trading momentum


Gold prices surged above $1,400 an ounce Tuesday as a weaker dollar pushed investors into the safe haven of precious metals.
Gold also seems to be gaining value based on its own track record for 2010, when global economic instability made it the go-to investment for jittery traders.
"Still looking for ONE good reason for" the price increase, analyst Jon Nadler wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "No trader can own up to one."
Nadler, a senior analyst with Kitco Metals Inc., said gold's upward momentum seems to be one of the key drivers in its continued rise, creating a kind of casino-like environment where traders snap up contracts in anticipation that others will as well.
"In so many words, it is rising because it HAS risen already. Stack the chips," Nadler wrote.
Still, there are fundamentals supporting gold's rise, said George Gero, senior vice president for RBC Wealth Management. Precious metals are a classic hedge against inflation. Traders are speculating that more central banks will take action to stimulate their economies in 2011, which could lead to inflation and make gold even more attractive than it is now.

Monday, December 27, 2010

SURVEY: Gold prices and output to go higher in 2011, PwC



TORONTO - Despite the current strength in the price of gold, mining companies in Canada and globally are predicting high gold prices to continue throughout 2011, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' 2010 Global Gold Price Survey Report released in mid-December
Key findings:
  • A majority of 82% of gold producers expect their forecasted production levels to increase.
  • Nearly 75%of gold mining companies expect the price of gold to continue to rise until Q4 2011. However, the current price of gold is still far below the high of 1980 in real terms.
  • Gold companies predict the price of gold will peak between US$1,400 and US$3,000, with 40% believing the price will peak around US$1,500 when the survey was conducted in November 2010.
"Given the high demand for gold, it will be interesting to see if companies that have located marginal deposits of gold will kick-start their production and move faster than they would under normal circumstances," says John Gravelle, Canadian mining leader, PwC.

more...

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Wall Street Journal Report



Getty Images
Capital Economics is out with a bullish note on old yeller, saying they now forecast that the metal goes to $1,600 by the end of next year and 2,000 by the end of 2012. Gold is currently trading around $1,385:
We are increasingly positive on gold. Admittedly, we are relatively recent - and regrettably late - converts to this camp. A firmer dollar, fading inflation fears and greater risk appetite may also limit the upside in the next few months. But the price of gold should continue to be supported by demand for a safe haven from other potential economic and financial shocks. Front-runners include the risks of a US-China trade war and some form of EMU break-up. Even if the euro-zone holds together, the rolling financial crisis in Europe should keep investors nervous. We are also increasingly concerned that the longstanding fiscal problems in Japan will finally come to a head in the next year or two.
What’s interesting to us about this call is that it’s decidedly not about using gold as a hedge against inflation.

Capital Economics
In fact, check out this chart included in Capital Economics’ note. You can see how the price of gold isn’t being supported by inflation as it was during the last bubbl– err, period of well-reasoned, enthusiastic investment in the the shiny rock — back during the early 1980s. Capital Economics’ Julian Jessop writes:
Gold prices peaked at around $2,300 in real terms in January 1980, albeit driven by demand for
an inflation hedge. Inflation was then much higher than is remotely likely now (see Chart 2), and these gold price levels were not sustained for more than a few days. Nonetheless, the shocks that could still be to come would readily justify a retesting of these highs.

more... 

Sunday, December 12, 2010

(FT) Gold a godsend in uncertain times

By Ruth Sullivan 

Published: December 12 2010 08:43 | Last updated: December 12 2010 08:43

Investors have turned to precious metals, particularly gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, as concerns grow over eurozone sovereign debt, widespread economic uncertainty and currency falls.

“In times of uncertainty and austerity nothing glitters quite like gold,” says Paul Duncombe, head of multi-asset investment solutions at Schroders.
 
The World Gold Council expects gold demand in 2010 to exceed that of last year, driven by investment demand as a result of concern over quantitative easing, currency conflict and inflation, in addition to strong demand for jewellery in China and India, and a revival in the use of gold by the industrial sector.

“The rediscovery of gold as both a currency and a monetary asset has been brought into sharp focus,” says Marcus Grubb, investment managing director at the council.

Investment into physical gold rose to $14.6bn in the first nine months of 2010, up from $8bn in the same period a year ago, according to the council. This comes largely from retail investors buying bullion but also from both institutional and retail investors gaining exposure to the precious metal through physically backed gold exchange traded funds.

Schroders has been “investing more in gold [across multi-asset funds] this year, using it to hedge against risky assets such as equities that can fall in an uncertain economic environment, and also as a hedge against developed market currencies as their value falls, using gold as a quasi-currency”, says Mr Duncombe.

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Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Get On Board The Gold Train, Next Stop $1,800 (Forbes)


Get On Board The Gold Train, Next Stop $1,800

posted by SCOTT REDLER
Gold has been one of the stories of the market over the last several years as the global economic crisis and an overall lack of trust in the “system” has led investors to seek a more evergreen store of value.
I personally first began talking about Gold in December 2008 when it was trading at $850/ounce. I felt the technical indicators and a compelling story suggested a move to $1,300-$1,500. Although I did not hold the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD), which is my preferred vehicle for trading gold, for that entire run, I traded gold on several occasions within that time frame with much success.
When you have a powerful idea, you must be able to execute it in a way that fits in with your overall trading or investment strategy, and that’s what I have done with gold. In hindsight, do I wish I had bought tier four gold in 2008 after I made that prediction on CNBC, and held it for the entire measured move? Sure, but I have not lost any sleep over it. I feel content that I traded gold in a way I was comfortable with. I have applied my own active, risk averse approach to the gold trade, locking in gains and taking risk off when it seemed appropriate to do so. Depending on your overall strategy as a market participant, customize your approach to trading gold.

Friday, December 3, 2010

November jobs report: Unemployment rate up

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy continued to add jobs last month, but at a much slower pace than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.8%.

U.S. employers added 39,000 jobs to their payrolls in November, the Labor Department reported Friday. That marks a major slowdown from October, when the economy added an upwardly revised 172,000 jobs.
November's numbers also fell short of the 150,000 gain that economists surveyed by CNNMoney.com were expecting.

Monday, November 29, 2010

$2,000 Gold – Why and When?



why and when?
Macquarie Equities Research, in a note to clients earlier this morning, commented:
“Gold as an alternative currency has been an important theme driving prices higher over the past several years.  As we have discussed previously, none of the world’s three leading currencies (U.S. dollar, euro, and yen) enjoy strong fundamentals, which underscores the long-term case for owning gold…Actions in Europe over the past few days highlight the long, long road that Europe faces to return to financial respectability and the high probability of further setbacks along the way.”
“As long as US real short rates remain negative, the opportunity cost of owning gold is negligible. In a highly uncertain world, gold is effective insurance at a compelling price.”
“We remain cautious about the outlook for gold in the very near term given the strengthening dollar and weakening sentiment. However, we look to add to positions in gold and gold stocks in the coming weeks as the medium-to-long term outlook remains very positive. We continue to see gold reaching $2,000/oz over the next 18–24 months.”
Short URL: http://www.goldalert.com/?p=7419

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Major Economic Decisions affecting FX and Gold.


Spiralling euro crisis could cost us billions more: Now there are fears for Spain, Portugal and Belgium

By HUGO DUNCAN
Last updated at 3:44 AM on 26th November 2010
British taxpayers could be asked to stump up billions more pounds to stop the European debt crisis spiralling out of control.
George Osborne has already pledged around £7billion to the mammoth bailout of Ireland - at a cost of nearly £300 to every household.
But, as the euro continues to tumble, the rescue package has failed to calm fears that other debt-ridden countries will need help to survive.
Worsening situation: As the euro continues to tumble, British taxpayers could be asked to stump up billions more pounds to stop the European debt crisis spiralling out of control
Worsening situation: As the euro continues to tumble, British taxpayers could be asked to stump up billions more pounds to stop the European debt crisis spiralling out of control
Portugal is seen as the next in line but Spain, Italy and even Belgium are on the danger list.
Fears are mounting that the £635billion rescue fund set up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund may not be big enough to cope.


    Axel Weber, head of Germany’s Bundesbank and a powerful figure at the European Central Bank, said that if it is not enough, ‘it will have to be increased’. 
    German chancellor Angela Merkel repeated calls for a permanent crisis fund.
    ‘We now have a mechanism of collective solidarity for the euro,’ she said. ‘And we all are ready, including Germany, to say that we now need a permanent crisis mechanism to protect the euro.’
    Painful cuts: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen (right) and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announce the National Recovery Plan in Dublin on Wednesday
    Painful cuts: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen (right) and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announce the National Recovery Plan in Dublin on Wednesday

    WHY ORDINARY GERMANS ARE SICK OF BAILING OUT THE EURO 

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands in front of a 30-year-old and seven metre high Christmas tree
    German Chancellor Angela Merkel is involved in the fight of her life (writes Allan Hall in Berlin).
    Not against terrorists, the Left, or the French - but in trying to persuade her own people that the euro is worth fighting for.
    Increasingly, as Germany bailed out Greece and will now have to dig deep to save Ireland, ordinary Germans are sick of it.
    Long sceptical of swapping the mighty D-Mark for the common currency - a survey this year found more than 51 per cent wanted to ditch the euro before the full impact of Greece and now Ireland was known - there is an ugly mood abroad.
    Burdened by high taxes, a harsh austerity programme and dwindling opportunities, they are in no mood for new lectures on why it is important to save the euro.
    Chancellor Angela Merkel has yet to make an official statement on Ireland's request for help but the noises from the chancellery are that fear will play a large part in the PR campaign to convince Germans that the currency is good for them.
    The word is she will sell up to £30billion worth of aid for Ireland claiming that social cohesion and peace itself in Germany will be threatened if the country doesn‘t cough up for Dublin.
    But while she stokes up popular fears, she has plenty of her own. The climate is ripe in Germany now for a rightist party to grab up to 20 per cent of the voter from her conservative CDU on an anti-EU platform.
    The recently formed Freedom Party is currently underway trying to do just that.
    One caller into Radio Bavaria in Munich this morning said; 'If our cars and fridges and heavy machinery and chemicals and ships are good enough to be bought around the world priced in euros then they will be good enough to be bought in marks and to hell with the rest of Europe'.


    A bigger permanent fund could put George Osborne on collision course with Tory MPs on one side and fellow European leaders on the other.
    The single currency fell again yesterday, hitting fresh two-month lows against the pound and the dollar. The cost of government borrowing in weak European countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain also rose as nervous investors demanded higher rates of return.
    Leading eurosceptic Tory MP Douglas Carswell said: ‘We are being sucked slowly but surely into the black hole.
    ‘We need to stop throwing good money after bad and we need to allow the break-up of the euro.
    ‘The politicians are telling us that break up is not an option but economic reality is closing in.’
    Former Tory minister John Redwood said: ‘It should be for euro members to make the money available to those in difficulty.’
    It is likely that countries in the euro would be asked to foot much of the bill by pumping more cash into their £373billion rescue fund.
    But Brussels may also try to increase the size of a £50billion EU-wide bailout fund - putting British taxpayers back in the firing line.
    It would be a major headache for the Chancellor who is furious that his predecessor Alistair Darling signed Britain up to the EU scheme after the general election.
    Treasury sources said Mr Osborne would oppose any attempts to increase the size of the scheme, having this week pledged to block a move spearheaded by Germany to make it permanent beyond 2013. 
    But although that would appease eurosceptic Tory MPs, it would put the Chancellor at loggerheads with fellow European leaders desperate to save the euro from collapse.
    Kathleen Brooks, research director at currency agency Forex.com in London, said: ‘Another day, more weakness in the euro. The single currency seems to be on a slow grind lower.
    ‘Fears seem to be settling on a potential Spanish bailout exceeding the size of the current stabilisation fund, throwing a possible rescue of the Iberian nation into chaos. The more likely a Spanish bailout becomes, the more investors are going to sell the single currency.’
    Mr Weber said he was convinced EU leaders would do whatever it takes to repel what he called an ‘opportunistic attack’ on the euro bloc.
    Tory MP Bill Cash said: ‘This prospect is the nightmare that we have been warning about. We should never have agreed to the stabilisation mechanism in the first place.’


    Dominoes: The collapse of Greece and Ireland's economies could have a knock-on effect on other nations
    Dominoes: The collapse of Greece and Ireland's economies could have a knock-on effect on other nations. Britain's public sector net debt is £845.8 billion, the equivalent to 57.1 per cent of gross domestic product



    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333204/Spiralling-euro-crisis-cost-billions-Now-fears-Spain-Portugal-Belgium.html#ixzz11rK7UP1N


    Monday, November 22, 2010

    Soros Gold Bubble Expanding as ETFs Hold Nine Years of U.S. Mine Supplies

    Soros Gold Bubble Expanding as ETFs Hold Nine Years of U.S. Mine Supplies
    By Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen - Nov 22, 2010 8:26 PM GMT+0400


    Gold’s 23 percent surge this year to a record is proving no deterrent to George Soros, John Paulson and Paul Touradji, whose investments signal more gains for the longest winning streak in at least nine decades.


    Securities and Exchange Commission filings this month by Soros Fund Management LLC, Paulson & Co. and Touradji Capital Management LP listed investments in gold as their biggest holdings. Exchange-traded products own 2,088 metric tons, equal to nine years of U.S. mine supply, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Precious metals will produce the best commodity returns in the next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Nov. 9 report.

    Continue.....

    Thursday, November 18, 2010

    Top 5 Reasons Gold Prices Move

    Stock quotes in this article:GLD 

    NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices have risen 20% in 2010, closing Wednesday at $1,336.90 an ounce. Another round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, global currency wars led by the "race to debase," and a weakening eurozone have triggered gold's recent surge, but those issues don't tell the whole story.
    Gold prices broke to a new record high last week of $1,424 an ounce as investors bought gold as protection against the Fed's loose monetary policy, and as Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, floated the idea of a gold standard to solve exchange rate wars rocking currency markets.
    Gold's rally was fierce and short-lived. New highs failed to attract new money and momentum traders. No new money coupled with worries that China would raise key interest rates to fight inflation slaughtered prices and dragged them down 6%.
    Most analysts believe the stage is set for more volatility in gold prices. Global uncertainty after the Group of 20 failed to come to an agreement on how to halt currency manipulation, of which China and the U.S. are both accused, establishes a choppy trading environment. 
    Gold is also at the mercy of stocks. When equities plummet, investors are often forced to sell gold for cash, but any significant dip can trigger a wave of buying as investors purchase gold at "discount" prices resulting in a strong tug of war for prices.
    Prices must also contend with speculation. Some investors buy gold as protection for their portfolios and are unlikely to participate in the day-to-day market action. Traders, however, use gold as a trade, a quick way to make money, which has been aggravated recently as they must decide whether to let their December future contracts expire or pony up the cash to roll over the contract to February 2011.
    Aside from recent market jitters and technical trading, there are five other fundamental factors that contribute to gold's strong price moves.
    5. Price Manipulation
    Price manipulation is the most controversial theory that has circulated among gold bugs for 20 years. Some argue that gold prices have been illegally suppressed over the last two decades by central banks and governments. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA, is the biggest complainant.
    According to statistics from the World Gold Council, central banks reportedly have 32,000 tons of gold, with the International Monetary Fund accounting for 2,966.8 tons. Under the Washington Agreement on Gold, its members can sell a maximum of 400 tons a year, thereby restricting the amount of gold in the open marketplace.
    GATA argues that central banks actually have less than 15,000 tons of gold, and that the missing gold has been secretly sold or leased into the market to prevent gold prices from rising to their actual value, which should be between $3,000 to $5,000 an ounce.