Gold to average US$1,269/oz in 2014 - ANZ

Australia-New Zealand bank ANZ has adjusted down its near term price forecast for gold and is now expecting an average gold price of US$1,269/oz in 2014, down from a previous forecast of US$1,436/oz.

The downward review is due to a softer than expected demand response to the lower price environment and an expectation that sentiment will remain negative, ANZ said in a gold market research report.

The bank expects gold prices to improve through 2H14, with the "trough" in price to take place in the first quarter of next year when gold will decline to US$1,150/oz. The yellow metal will recover gradually to US$1,450/oz by end-2014, the bank said.

ANZ is maintaining its long term baseline gold price of US$1,450/oz.

Gold closed Friday at US$1,253/oz on the London Bullion Market, up from US$1,245.50/oz in the previous trading session, but remaining within recent ranges.

CHINESE DEMAND

Meanwhile, physical demand for gold was given a boost on the news that China's net imports of the yellow metal from Hong Kong totaled 131.19t in October, the second highest level on record. China has imported more than 100t of gold each month over the last six months and demand is expected to continue to increase in the run up to the lunar New Year at end-January 2014.

Chinese consumer demand for the metal rose 30% in the 12 months through September, and the country is likely to overtake India as the largest consumer in the world in 2013, according to the World Gold Council.

http://www.bnamericas.com/news/metals/gold-to-average-us1269-oz-in-2014-anz

Now is a very good time to buy' – Ron Paul on gold

Ana Komnenic | November 28, 2013

Is Now the Time to Buy Gold?

Another day of stock market gains, as the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 made new closing highs that have been confirmed by their Advance/Decline lines. The Dow Jones Industrials made a new closing high by 20 cents. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite failed to make new highs.

The divergences discussed in yesterday’s column are still intact, as the A/D numbers were just narrowly positive. It will take a day of sharply positive or negative A/D ratio to signal the next sustainable move for the broader market. With light holiday volume, we may just chop around for the rest of this week.

Gold prices have stabilized this week, with the December gold futures up just over $8 from last Friday’s close. The futures are down over 25% for the year and have lost 8% from the late October highs, as the “bull trap” I have been discussing for the past few months slammed shut two weeks ago.

Many traders and investors are now wondering whether prices have declined enough to create a good buying opportunity, but are there signs now of a technical bottom?

Click to Enlarge

Chart Analysis: The weekly chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) shows the second drop below the weekly starc- band in late June and the ensuing sharp rally.

• The rebound failed in August, as the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level from the 2012 highs was tested.
• The weekly chart shows a pattern of lower lows, but, so far, prices have held above the June lows.
• The OBV shows a solid weekly downtrend, line b, since early in the year.
• The OBV broke support in early April, (see arrow), as prices were about to plunge.
• It is an encouraging sign that the OBV is still holding above the June lows.
• The recent swing high on the weekly chart at $131.44 now represents important resistance.

The daily chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) shows the completion of the flag formation, lines c and d, on November 12.

As I discussed on November 5:

• A break of the key support at $121.85, (point 3), will complete the formation.
• There are several ways to calculate downside targets, based on Fibonacci analysis, as well as on the chart formation.
• If the decline from point 4 is equal to the decline from point 2 to point 3, then the 100% Fibonacci projection target is at $115.74.
• Using the rally from point 1 to point 2, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement target is at $108.65.
• The daily OBV broke support at line f, a few days before prices violated their key support.
• The target at $115.74 still looks attainable before year end, as it is just 3.4% below current levels.
• The chart shows that the starc- band was tested last week, (see arrow), so, we could see a further bounce before the decline resumes.
• The declining 20-day EMA at $123.60 now represents strong resistance.

Click to Enlarge

The Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is down over 45% YTD, and has lost over 17% in just the past month.

• The daily chart shows that the uptrend, line a, was decisively broken in September when GDX was trading at $25.17.
• GDX quickly dropped over 11% to a low of $22.78 on October 16.
• The following oversold bounce stalled below the former uptrend, (line a), and the 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance from the August high.
• This week, GDX made new correction lows at $21.52 and is close to its starc- band.
• The weekly starc- band is currently at $19.40, which is very close to December’s projected pivot low.
• The daily OBV broke its support, line d, just a few days after GDX tested its declining 20-day EMA, (see arrow).
• The OBV has confirmed the recent lows, and the weekly OBV is also negative, so the OBV multiple time frame analysis still points lower.
• There is initial resistance now at $22.50-$23, with the 20-day EMA at $23.56.

What it Means: Despite the various fundamental arguments for buying gold, the daily and weekly technical outlook is negative for both the metal, as well as, the miners. Clearly we will see further sharp rallies, but until we see some more positive signs from the OBV, it is best to be on the sidelines or short.

How to Profit: No new recommendation.

Portfolio Update: The PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ) was recommended on November 5, with the first buy zone at $14.36. Unfortunately, the next day’s low was $14.42, so in a November 8 Tweet, I changed the buy to $14.71 and $14.65. DGZ hit a low of $14.70 on the 14th. Use a stop now at $14.37.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/11/27/is-now-the-time-to-buy-gold/

ROSENBERG: Here Are 9 Things Holding Back Gold

REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader

Gold granules are poured into a glowing melting pot at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna, April 16, 2013.

"Gold is down 27% for the year and on track for its most dismal annual performance since 1981," noted Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg in his latest Breakfast With Dave note.

John Paulson and George Soros were among the big gold bulls that cut back on gold this year. Retail investors have pulled out aggressively as seen by the 1,850 metric ton drop in gold ETF holdings.

Despite the drop, Rosenberg isn't recommending buying.

"The reasons for gold's hurdles are multifold," he said. Here's his list (verbatim):

• Draghi pledging to save the euro area from breakup.
• China's ability to stabilize its growth and excite investors with its new ambitious plan.
• Abenomics breaking the back of Japan's economic slide.
• The U.S. government reaching, but not hitting the brink on the fiscal side last Fall.
• Continued low inflation readings globally.
• The Fed bracing the markets for the eventual tapering.
• The competition from other rival alternative currencies like Bitcoin.
• The selloff in long U.S. Treasuries which has re-established a positive real interest rate in the bond market.
• India's recession and government import curbs to cure the current account deficit have dampened gold demand in this key purchasing country.

You know things are bad when you're losing investors to Bitcoin.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-reasons-for-golds-hurdles-2013-11#ixzz2lp63FUCW

Bullion backwash

THE two gold biscuits an Indian man in Bangkok’s Chinatown holds in his right hand are no bigger than a Swiss army knife. He has just bought them on Yaowarat Road for $15,000, but in his native Mumbai they are worth $16,500. They can travel in a computer bag or “if you are really worried about customs”, he says pointing at a shop which sells plain golden necklaces, “you buy those and put them around your wife’s neck."

Earlier this year the Indian government imposed quotas and increased taxes on gold imports, but it takes more than that to limit Indians’ love of gold. Although the country’s statisticians report that Indians officially buy a lot less of the precious metal—148.2 tonnes from July to September, a third less than in the same period last year—there has been a surge in gold smuggling.

Customs officials at airports in India, Nepal and Bangladesh are reporting a spike in seizures of gold originating from places such as Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Dubai. What happens along India’s 15,000km land border and 7,500km coastline is anyone’s guess. But the effects of India’s attempts to curb gold imports are most widely felt in Thailand.

With India’s market ring-fenced, more physical gold has made its way to Thailand. In the most recent quarter demand from Thai consumers surged 125% compared with the same period last year, to nearly 36 tonnes—faster than in any other country. And demand from investors has grown more than 80% this year. The World Gold Council attributes the increase “in no small part due to Thailand being used as a route to channel gold into other markets, notably India and Vietnam.”

But other factors play a role too. Gold has become cheaper recently, the Thai economy and the baht are wobbling, and real short-term interest rates are close to zero. In addition, a period of relative political stability has come to an abrupt end: Thailand has recently seen the biggest street protests since 2010.

Thailand has its own experience with interventions that create unwanted side effects. The Thai government pays high prices for rice produced by local farmers, who are an important political constituency. But their colleagues in Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos have long figured out that by shipping their rice across the border to Thailand, they can pocket a multiple of what it is worth back home.Thai gold smugglers now play this trick on India.

Business has been swift on the top floor of one of Bangkok’s glitziest shopping malls where gold traders and banks make their case for investment in gold. Trading screens outnumber gold bars, of which a few are on display to remind investors of the stuff. But this should count as progress compared to the days when gold shops made a killing in trading gold bars bartered for opium 850km north of Bangkok where Thailand, Myanmar and Laos meet—an area which still is called “Golden Triangle”.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/11/gold-trade-thailand

Gold dips as fears of conflict with Iran ease

AFP/Getty Images

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Gold prices came under pressure on Monday after the U.S. and five other world powers reached an historic agreement with Iran that would roll back that country’s nuclear program.

With the threat of any imminent conflict with Iran eased for the short term, February goldGCG4 -0.51% was down $3.20, or 0.3%, to $1,241.40 an ounce. March SilverSIH4 -0.81%  was down 11 cents, or 0.5%, to $19.80 an ounce.

Gold could stay under pressure for awhile, according to Yves Lamoureux of market advisory firm Lamoureux & Co., who said the Iran deal is “very negative” for gold and that it will finally “set the stage for a bear trap.”

On Friday, gold futures managed to close with a slight gain, but that didn’t stop prices from suffering their biggest weekly loss in 10 weeks amid increased chatter over the imminent tapering of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program.

Elsewhere in metals trading Monday, January platinum PLF4 -0.32%  was up $1.10 at $1,383.80 an ounce, while March palladium PAH4 -0.06%  shed 20 cents to $716.15 an ounce.

March copper HGH4 -0.06% was flat at $3.122 a pound.  

Shawn Langlois is an editor and columnist for MarketWatch in London. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-dips-as-fears-of-conflict-with-iran-ease-2013-11-24?link=MW_home_latest_news

Gold Prices Set to Drop as US Economic Recovery Gains Momentum

Gold prices set to drop next week (Reuters).

Gold prices are poised to drop next week, with several analysts saying an improving US economy could boost the US dollar, putting pressure on the metal's safe-haven investment allure.

As many as 14 of 25 analysts polled by a Kitco Gold Survey said they expected gold prices to go down. Six predicted that prices would go up while five analysts forecast prices to remain unchanged.

The number of Americans claiming government-sponsored unemployment benefits have fallen sharply.

A gauge of US manufacturing activity struck an eight-month high in early November, suggesting that the world's leading economy was gaining strength.

Meanwhile, US government data also showed that wholesale prices fell for a second straight month in October, a sign that the inflationary pressure on the economy was reducing.

Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis told Reuters: "The gold price drop seen earlier this week has weakened the technical picture and the next important level to watch is obviously $1,200. Evidence that the US economy is improving will lift the dollar, putting further pressure on the gold price in coming weeks."

Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures told Kitco: "What can I say about gold this week? It feels like it's a boxer trapped in the corner of the ring and Mike Tyson is throwing a left -- higher interest rates -- and a right - [US Federal Reserve] tapering -- directly at it. Geopolitical risks are nonexistent at the moment as well. Gold's best chance at a turnaround is damage done to the euro currency. When we saw news that the EU may make another interest rate cut, gold instantly popped several dollars. So I feel that's where it would get its bullish momentum from. Otherwise lower is the path of least resistance."

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets said in a note to clients: "The gold price is unlikely to rise noticeably in the months ahead. Persistent ETF outflows, low inflation rates and the debate about Fed tapering will probably act as an impediment to a price increase".

"But China's robust gold demand will also prevent a further price decline. Only in the second half of 2014 should a revival of investment demand cause the gold price to rise," the German bank added.

Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,245 an ounce on 22 November. Prices were down 0.2% a week ago after logging two days of gains on the back of US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen's comments.

US gold futures for delivery in December rose on 22 November, finishing at $1,244.10 an ounce.

For the week as a whole, December gold futures dropped 3.4%.

Meanwhile, US gold futures for delivery in February, which will soon become the front month, ended at $1,244.60.

Central Bank Purchases

IMF data showed that central banks bought little gold in October. However, Turkey bucked the trend and reported a 13-ton increase in its gold holdings.

World Gold Council data showed that central banks in the emerging economies bought 93.4 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2013 to diversify their currency reserves.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/524552/20131123/gold-prices-economy-recovery-dollar.htm?fs=2d762

Gold creeps higher after two-day drought

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Gold futures turned higher in electronic trade Friday, up only slightly after increased taper chatter caused a two-day dip that took prices down to levels not seen in four months.

Midday in East Asia, gold for December delivery GCZ3 +0.09%  traded 40 cents higher at $1,244.10 an ounce. December silver SIZ3 +0.26%  added 6 cents, or 0.3%, to $19.99 an ounce.

A day earlier, gold futures came under pressure when mostly upbeat U.S. economic data, particularly on the employment front, were viewed as ramping up the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut back on its stimulus program within the next few meetings.

AFP/Getty Images

“The Fed needs to normalize its book but are very concerned about interrupting the magic ride in the equity and housing sectors.,” said Kitco’s Peter Hug. “Their Fed speak is now gearing more and more to, ‘we want to taper, we need to see slightly better evidence, but don’t worry, we will keep our rates at zero, forever. So please let us begin to taper, but don’t sell your assets and don’t panic, we will hold the real rates down for you.’”

Elsewhere in metals trading Friday, January platinum PLF4 +0.27%  rose $2.40, or 0.2%, to $1,394.10 an ounce, while December palladium PAZ3 +0.48%  tacked on $1.25, or 0.2%, to $714.50 an ounce.

High-grade copper HGZ3 -0.09%  barely budged, holding steady at $3.19 a pound. 

Shawn Langlois is an editor and columnist for MarketWatch in London. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-creeps-higher-after-two-day-drought-2013-11-21

Gold ends above $1,273, but stimulus jitters contain rally

AP

Gold settled higher on Tuesday, stabilizing after sharp losses seen in the previous session, as investors gauged Federal Reserve officials' comments about theoutlook for easy monetary policy and the strength of the U.S. economy.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said he was "more hopeful'' about the U.S. economy but also that he expected "very accommodative'' monetary policy to be in place "for a considerable period of time."

	Name	Price		Change	%Change	Volume
GOLD	Gold (Dec'13)	1273.50	---	UNCH	0%	8898
GOLD/USD	Gold / US Dollar Spot	1273.90		-0.74	-0.06%	---
SILV/USD	Silver / US Dollar Spot	20.39		0.07	0.34%	---
SILVER	Silver (Dec'13)	20.435		0.101	0.50%	2473
PALL/USD	Palladium / US Dollar Spot	720.25		2.25	0.31%	---
PLAT/USD	Platinum / US Dollar Spot	1409.99		-1.81	-0.13%	---

Spot gold was last flat at $1,274 an ounce, after dropping 1.2 percent on Monday. Technical support was pegged at the recent low of $1,261, while a breach of the mid-October low of $1,251 would see the metal dropping further to June near-three-year lows of $1,180, ScotiaMocatta said in a note.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled $1.20 higher at $1,273.50 an ounce.

Gold had been boosted last week by comments from Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve's chief in waiting, indicating she would continue the U.S. central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy. The Fed's $85 billion in monthly bond purchases has been have been a major support for gold prices in recent years as a hedge against inflation.

Investors were looking ahead to the release on Wednesday of minutes from the Fed's October meeting.

—By Reuters

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101208562

How Does Dow 16,000 Impact the Gold Market?

Billionaire John Paulson sticks with gold as prices rebound; Global demand tumbles 21% last quarter

NEW YORK: Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, who cut his gold holdings by more than half in the second quarter, maintained his bet on the metal over the next three months as prices rebounded. 

Paulson & Co, the largest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product for the metal, held 10.23 million shares as on September 30, unchanged from June 30, according to a government filing on Thursday. 

Billionaire George Soros took a stake in the Market Vectors Gold Min ..

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/25971698.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Gold Prices to Oscillate Next Week as Investors Await Cues

Gold bars are displayed at the Ginza Tanaka store in Tokyo in April, 2013 (Reuters).

Gold prices are poised to move sideways next week, with several analysts saying the precious metal could extend the week's gains while others are of the view that the rally, induced by US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen's comments, will be short lived.

As many as 10 of 25 analysts polled by a Kitco Gold Survey said they expected gold prices to go up. Eight predicted that prices would drop while seven analysts forecast prices to remain unchanged.

Gold enjoyed two days of gains this week after Yellen's remarks.

Yellen, the nominee to chair the world's most powerful central bank, said on 14 November that she would push forward with the Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy until the US economy is strong enough to sustain job creation.

The veteran policymaker reiterated that the Fed's asset-buying programme was not on any pre-set course. Any decision to trim QE would be based on economic data, she said.

Any extension in the Fed's monetary stimulus would negatively impact the US dollar, boosting gold's appeal as an investment hedge.

Kevin Grady, owner of Phoenix Futures and Options told Kitco: "Comments by [Federal Reserve Chair nominee] Janet Yellen [on Thursday] suggest that any degree of tapering is not imminent. Over the past four trading sessions we have seen upwards of 18,000 new shorts enter the market. Although I do believe we did have some short covering in [Thursday's] action, I think there is more short covering to come. We also saw some aggressive call buying [Thursday]. Couple these factors together and we should see some higher prices next week," he said.

However, Sterling Smith, futures specialist and vice-president of commodity research at Citibank Institutional Client Group, said the lack of inflation is bearish for gold, which along with the weak momentum would cap a price rise.

"The market should find strong resistance at $1,300," Smith said.

Gold Ends Lower

Spot gold was down 0.2% to $1,295 an ounce on 15 November. Prices were down 1.8%  a week ago, on fears that the Fed could start trimming its monetary stimulus in December.

US gold futures for delivery in December finished $1.10 higher or 0.1% at $1,287.40 an ounce on 15 November, according to FactSet data .

For the week as a whole, gold futures inched up 0.2% after losing 5.1% over the past two weeks.

Gold Demand Down

The World Gold Council (WGC) said in its latest gold demand trends report that the global demand for gold declined by 21% to 869 tonnes during the July-September quarter.

The average gold price for the third-quarter was $1,326 an ounce, down 20% from a year ago. In value terms, gold demand in Q3 2013 was $37bn, down 37% compared to Q3 2012.

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http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/522686/20131116/gold-bullion-prices-janet-yellen-fed-taper.htm