Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Gold Bugs Have Reasons to Cheer

Bloomberg
Gold has a new lease on life. For now, anyway.
Gold, one of the biggest losers of 2013 with its whopping 28% decline, is on the upswing as tremors in emerging markets rekindle the investor appetite for safe havens that was lacking for much of the last year.
As central banks in emerging markets try to slow an investor retreat and global equities markets swoon, some investors think gold is a decent spot to wait out the chaos. Futures are up 1.3% at $1,266.40 an ounce, on track for a two-month high.
“Gold becomes the ultimate currency” in environments like this, gaining along with safe-haven stalwarts like the Japanese yen and Treasurys, says Bill O’Neill, a principal with commodities trading firm Logic Advisors,
Still, gold has a long way to go to regain investors’ trust. Gold exchange-traded funds, a popular vehicle in recent years for investors to gain exposure to gold, haven’t seen big inflows despite the rebound in prices so far this year.
“You have problems in Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, India,” Mr. O’Neill said. “There’s been myriad financial and currency related problems around the world, and gold really hasn’t been able to break out.”
Futures are up 5.2% this month, which would be the third-best monthly performance since gold slipped into its current bear market. But that’s well short of the 10% surges gold posted in recent years when the Federal Reserve was ramping up bond purchases and Europe’s debt crisis flared.
With the Fed expected to further throttle back its purchases, gold’s rebound may be short-lived.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

China corners the gold market like the Hunt Brothers goosed silver in 1980

By Peter Cooper
China has effectively cornered the gold market over the past couple of years by draining the vaults of the world and will now create a shortage of the yellow metal that will hike its price just as the US billionaire Hunt Brothers goosed silver in 1980 and sent the price to levels it has never achieved again in 34 years.

Only this time around something is different. The Comex won’t be able to change the rulebook as it did to bring the Hunt Brothers’ empire crashing down with the silver price. China has actually taken possession of the physical gold. It is not a paper derivatives contract at stake this time.

Gold watchers
Gold watchers are waiting for two announcements at the moment: the hour of reckoning when the Comex no longer has sufficient gold in its warehouses to cover deliveries; and a report from China that its official reserves are up from 1,054 as last reported five years ago to more than 5,000 tonnes.
How anybody can be fooled by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley into thinking that the next big move for gold will be back to $1,000 we don’t know. Did somebody not once say that if you are going to tell a lie make it a big one and people will believe you?
What these US investment banks have done is to capitalize on investors’ myopia: they only see what is in front of them in US financial markets and don’t see the wood for the trees. Think US domestic short-term and you have a recovery on your hands and a runaway stock market.
Still cashing out of gold after its big tumble last year and investing in the stock market that has just stalled after a stellar run looks like a suicide ticket to us. Perhaps the rise in the price of gold and silver since the beginning of the year is a sign that we are not alone in seeing this.

Maximizing ROI
Readers of the ArabianMoney investment newsletter will know our view on 2014 and how best to leverage up on rising precious metal prices (click here). Sadly we can’t give this information away on this website and it remains proprietary to the newsletter only.
What we can tell you is that China’s cornering of the gold market is the biggest thing to hit precious metals since the Hunt Brothers cornered silver in 1980, but the Comex won’t be able to break China’s stranglehold so prices will head very much higher from here.
Of course silver will have the last laugh, and outperform gold as it always does to the upside. Given the 60 per cent discount to 1980 prices silver’s price increase will be epic.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1390752240.php

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Gold as a Deflation Hedge

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

Jan 16, 2014 - 09:44 PM GMT
Commodities
(The following is the first of a five part series on how gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation. The first installment examines gold’s safe-haven role during a deflationary event like the global 1930s economic depression.)
“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history. . .But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even worse, as if we are able to change the course of history. We produce thirty-year projections of social security deficits and oil prices without realizing that we cannot even predict these for next summer — our cumulative prediction errors for political and economic events are so monstrous that every time I look at the empirical record I have to pinch myself to verify that I am not dreaming. What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.”


- Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan — The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2010
“Having been mugged too often by reality, forecasters now express less confidence about our abilities to look beyond the immediate horizon. We will forever need to reach beyond our equations to apply economic judgment. Forecasters may never approach the fantasy success of the Oracle of Delphi or Nostradamus, but we can surely improve on the discouraging performance of the past.”
- Alan Greenspan, The Map and the Territory, 2013
Introduction
This short study examines gold’s performance under the four most commonly predicted worst-case economic scenarios — a 1930s-style deflation, chronic Japanese-style disinflation, a 1970s-style runaway stagflation, and a Weimar-style hyperinflation. “That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history,” Aldous Huxley once wrote, “is the most important of all the lessons of history.” Though I agree with Huxley’s assessment when applied to contemporary policymakers and central bankers, I do not agree with it when applied to their counterparts in the private sector, i.e., the individual investors. As justification, I offer the ongoing (and long-term) success of the USAGOLD website as well as the soaring statistics of late on private gold ownership both here and abroad, most of which has been accumulated for safe-haven purposes. Individually, we can and do learn the lessons of history even if we do not always do so collectively.
Black Swans, Yellow Gold is dedicated to those who believe, like Nicholas Taleb, that it is just as important to prepare for what we cannot foresee as what we can. Some might put their money on the latest Oracle of Delphi or the contemporary reincarnation of Nostradamus — or even an all-seeing eye plug-in that can be downloaded from the internet — but in the end, such notions are the dreams of government planners and retired central bankers. For the rest of us, a solid hedge in gold coins, as your are about to read, is the more sensible and reliable alternative — a wealth haven for all seasons.
We invite you to return to these pages periodically for the second installment in this series which we plan to publish next week.
Gold as a deflation hedge (United States, 1929)
WEBSTER DEFINES DEFLATION A “CONTRACTION IN THE VOLUME of available money and credit that results in a general decline in prices.” Typically deflations occur in gold standard economies when the state is deprived of its ability to conduct bailouts, run deficits and print money. Characterized by high unemployment, bankruptcies, government austerity measures and bank runs, a deflationary economic environment is usually accompanied by a stock and bond market collapse and general financial panic — an altogether unpleasant set of circumstances.
The Great Depression of the 1930s serves as a workable example of the degree to which gold protects its owners under deflationary circumstances. First, because the price of gold was fixed at $20.67 per ounce, it gained purchasing power as the general price level fell. In 1933, when the U.S. government raised the price of gold to $35 per ounce in an effort to reflate the economy through a formal devaluation of the dollar, gold gained even more purchasing power. President Franklin D. Roosevelt also confiscated gold bullion by executive order in concert with the devaluation, but exempted “rare and unusual” gold coins which later were defined by regulation simply as items minted before 1933. As a result, only those citizens who owned gold coins dated before 1933 were able to reap the benefit of the higher fixed prices. The accompanying graph illustrates those gains, and the gap between consumer prices and the gold price.
Gold as a deflation hedge
Second, since gold acts as a stand-alone asset that is not another’s liability, it played an effective store of value function prior to 1933 for those who either converted a portion of their capital to gold bullion or withdrew their savings from the banking system in the form of gold coins before the crisis struck. Those who did not have gold as part of their savings plan found themselves at the mercy of events when the stock market crashed and the banks closed their doors (many of which had already been bankrupted).
How gold might react in a deflation under today’s fiat money system is a more complicated scenario. Even one under a fiat money system, the general price level would be falling by definition. Economists who make the deflationary argument within the context of a fiat money economy usually use the analogy of the central bank “pushing on a string.” It wants to inflate, but no matter how hard it tries the public refuses to borrow and spend. (If this all sounds familiar, it should. This is precisely the situation in which the Federal Reserve finds itself today.) In the end, so goes the deflationist argument, the central bank fails in its efforts and the economy rolls over from recession to a full-blown deflationary depression.
How the government treats gold under a deflationary scenario will play heavily into its performance:
- If gold is subjected to price controls and restricted ownership, as it was in the 1930s deflation, it would likely perform as it did then, i.e., its purchasing power would increase as the price level fell. Under such circumstances, the ownership of “rare and unusual” gold coins might once again come into play.
- If ownership is not restricted, it would turn out to be the best of all possible worlds for gold owners. Its purchasing power would increase as the price level fell, and the price itself could rise as a result of increased demand from investors hedging systemic risks and financial market instability.
Note: That, by the way, is the primary reason governments tend to restrict gold ownership when confronted with widespread bank runs and failing financial markets. Governments seize gold not because they need the money; they seize it to cut off the escape route and force capital flows back into banks and financial markets. As an aside, that is precisely the reason why governments have an interest in controlling the price of gold. Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, it has been copiously reported, once said, “Gold is my enemy. I’m always watching what it is doing.” Though there is no direct evidence I know of that the Fed or Treasury Department intervened directly in the gold market during Mr. Volcker’s tenure, his statement does reflect the acute interest in gold on the part of monetary policy-makers. Alan Greenspan voiced a similar interest in gold throughout his Fed chairmanship and still does today, though unlike Volcker he has always defended gold and expressed an appreciation for its use as a form of money or final payment or reconciliation. Gold, in the end, is not just competition for the dollar; it is competition for the bank deposits, stocks and bonds most particularly during times of economic stress, and that is the source of enduring interest among policy-makers.
The disinflationary period leading up to and following the financial market meltdown of 2008 serves as a good example of how the second scenario might unfold. The disinflationary economy is a close cousin to deflation, and is covered in the next installment in this series. It provides some solid clues as to what we might expect from gold under a full deflationary breakdown.
If you are looking for a gold-based analysis of the financial markets and economy, we invite you to subscribe to our FREE newsletter – USAGOLD’s Review & Outlook, edited by Michael J. Kosares, the author of the preceding post, the founder of USAGOLD and the author of “The ABCs of Gold Investing: How To Protect And Build Your Wealth With Gold.” You can opt out any time and we won’t deluge you with junk e-mails.
By Michael J. Kosares 
Michael J. Kosares , founder and president 
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Denver
Michael J. Kosares is the founder of USAGOLD and the author of "The ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold." He has over forty years experience in the physical gold business.  He is also the editor of Review & Outlook, the firm's newsletter which is offered free of charge and specializes in issues and opinion of importance to owners of gold coins and bullion.  If you would like to register for an e-mail alert when the next issue is published, please visit this link
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in commentary e do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43997.html

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Gold's Decline Eats Into Swiss Reserves

Central Bank to Cancel Dividends for First Time

Updated Jan. 6, 2014 5:48 p.m. ET


ZURICH—It didn't take a heist for the Swiss National Bank SNBN.EB -4.39% to lose $16.6 billion on bullion.
That is how much the central bank said its gold holdings fell in value last year, as the price of the precious metal skidded 28%, the most since 1981. The loss was only partially offset by the central bank's profit on foreign currencies, saddling it with a $10 billion paper loss for 2013 and forcing the bank to cancel dividends to shareholders for the first time since it was founded 107 years ago.
The central bank also said Monday that it wouldn't be able to make additional payments to Switzerland's 26 cantons, which are similar to U.S. states, and the federal government for the first time since 1991.
Investors ranging from coin collectors to billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson have been hammered by gold's decline, which ended a 12-year bull run in 2013. Central banks are among the biggest losers, with $350 billion shaved off the value of their holdings in the year through October, according to Wall Street Journal calculations based on the most recent data from the International Monetary Fund. Unless the banks sell, their losses are unrealized and could reverse if gold rallies.
Most central banks own gold to boost confidence in their paper currency or protect against financial shocks, and are less concerned with the metal's performance.
For many investors, the shrinking role of central banks in the market is another reason to sell. The magnitude of last year's selloff already is making central bankers reluctant to buy more of the metal, weighing on prices and making a rebound less likely in 2014, analysts said.
"It's been a very tough period for [central bank] reserve asset managers," said Tom Kendall, a precious-metals analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG in London, pointing to volatility in currencies and the retreat in gold. "In theory these guys should be managing for the very long term, but the fact that they're recording [paper] losses makes it harder to say you should be adding more."
Gold fell throughout 2013, diving $200 a troy ounce, or 13%, over two days in April amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve would scale back its economic-stimulus efforts. The Fed is set to reduce bond purchases this month, marking the beginning of the end for a program that had supported demand for gold among investors worried that it would spark inflation.
Gold prices hit a more-than three-year low of $1,195 an ounce on Dec. 19. On Monday, gold ended down 60 cents, or 0.05%, at $1,237.80 an ounce.
The Fed doesn't own gold. The U.S. gold hoard—8,133.5 metric tons as of November, according to the IMF—is held in vaults by the Fed and U.S. Mint but is owned by the Treasury. The government agency has valued its gold at $42.22 an ounce by law since 1973.
Amid the price volatility last year, two of the most prominent investors in gold, Mr. Paulson and George Soros, cut their holdings in SPDR Gold TrustGLD -0.57% the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund. Overall, ETFs liquidated 874 metric tons of the metal as investors sold shares, according to Barclays PLC. Many developed economies have gradually reduced their gold holdings for much of the past decade. However, central banks in emerging markets were major buyers over the same period, turning to the metal in an effort to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and other paper currencies. Some, including Russia and Indonesia, increased their gold holdings in 2013, according to the IMF.
Recently, gold's drop has heightened concerns about dwindling foreign-exchange reserves in some of these countries as slowing economic growth causes trade and budget deficits to widen. Investors pay close attention to the size of a country's reserves, including both currencies and gold, as a way to gauge how much firepower it has to pay its debts and to ride out economic shocks.
"With gold prices falling, obviously those countries that have built up gold reserves and have inflated reserve estimates…are the ones that get hurt with gold on the way down," said Robert Abad, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at Western Asset Management Co. in Pasadena, Calif. The decline in gold prices is particularly bad news for Venezuela, which holds about 70% of its foreign-exchange reserves in gold.
The SNB's gold holdings are kept in bars and coins.Bloomberg News
Still, most central banks aren't nearly so reliant on gold to shore up reserves. Even factoring in last year's drop, central banks' gold hoard was valued at $1.35 trillion in October, up 60% since 2008.
"Anyone who bought gold after 2010 is currently in the loss zone," said Andreas Nigg, head of equity and commodity strategy at Bank VontobelVONN.EB +0.82% in Zurich.
Central banks in the euro zone own about 350 million ounces of gold. Through the first nine months of 2013, the value dropped by about €100 billion ($136 billion). However, euro-zone central banks built up sizable valuation buffers, accounts used to address unrealized gains and losses, when gold prices were rising and can probably absorb these paper losses without affecting their annual profits, which are distributed to national governments.
The Swiss National Bank's loss on its gold holdings, which amounted to 1,040.1 metric tons as of September, according to the IMF, will likely stoke a political controversy in Switzerland. Members of the right-wing Swiss People's Party are pushing for a national vote on requiring the central bank to keep at least 20% of its assets in gold. The central bank has said its flexibility would be limited by such a requirement, which could force it to buy more gold or reduce its holdings of other assets, such as currencies.
—Erin McCarthy contributed to this article.
Write to John Revill at john.revill@wsj.com and Laura Clarke at laura.clarke@wsj.com
Corrections & Amplifications
In 2012, the Swiss National Bank allocated 1.5 million Swiss francs in dividends. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the SNB allocated 1.5 billion Swiss francs in dividends. An earlier version of this story also misidentified Andreas Nigg, head of equity and commodity strategy at Bank Vontobel in Zurich.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Gold has its S.O.S. moment, and it’s bullish


By Michael A. Gayed
I see tons of articles arguing that gold is only heading lower after its worst year in three decades. Make no mistake about it — the precious metal had its Lehman moment in 2013.
Yet, with hindsight, it is clear that "Lehman moments" can result in some significant trading gains following extreme declines. Could gold be in a secular bear market? Maybe, but from a trading perspective, I think it’s worth considering some money positions back into gold minersGDX -0.91%  and gold itself GLD +1.09% .
Last year was almost a perfect storm. Between U.S. stocks rallying hard, India taking actions to make gold less attainable by her citizens, and the spike in bond yields combined with falling inflation expectations, there was no shortage of reasons to not divest the metal.
"Lord save us all from a hope tree that has lost the faculty of putting out blossoms."
— Mark Twain
This year may be very different. One of the biggest headwinds against gold was positive real rates, which back in January of last year I called the main dilemma against momentum. Historically, gold tends to do well when inflation is higher than nominal rates, also called a negative real-rate environment. When real rates are positive (inflation lower than nominal rates), the metal becomes less attractive due to holding and opportunity costs. There is no doubt that we aggressively entered a real-rate environment as bonds slumped and the deflation pulse took hold simultaneously.
But what if that ends? I suspect there will come a meaningful period of time in 2014 where negative real rates return, especially under a Yellen-led Fed. This implies that either inflation expectations really pick up, or bond yields fall to counter deflationary pressure.
Take a look below at the price ratio of the SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF relative to the S&P 500 SPY -0.02% . As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/GLD is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/SPY. For a larger chart, please click here .
Gold has been an awful performer since the Summer Crash of 2011, vastly underperforming U.S. markets, with extreme weakness in 2013. Yes, the trend is still down, but it’s worth considering that a tradeable opportunity is coming and soon.
Everyone loved gold up until 2011, and everyone hates it now. The contrarian in me says that's why its worth watching carefully. The catalyst likely needs to be negative real rates, and with inflation expectations ticking up a bit, the "Great Convergence of 2014" between reflation and U.S. markets may be precisely why gold's S.O.S. moment gets heard.
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing. 

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Gold In Early 2014: Chinese New Year Is Eyed For Demand Hints

Gold Hong Kong 2013
Gold bars. Reuters
As gold ends its worst year for price declines in three decades, and crawls to its first annual price drop since 2000, gold bugs look to 2014 for potential winds of change.
But it’s unclear what exactly to expect for the world’s most popular precious metal in the initial months of 2014. Many analysts expect the yellow metal to trade narrowly between $1,150 per ounce to $1,250 per ounce, or at the extremes, from $1,000/oz to $1,400/oz.
If prices fall below $1,000/oz, all bets are off the table, though few bank analysts predict that threshold will be breached, unless a major as-yet-unknown catalyst appears. But few analysts see prices climbing above $1,400/oz in the near term.
Recent mixed U.S. economic data failed to move bullion prices much either way, wrote HSBC Holdings PLC (LON:HSBA) analyst James Steel in a research note on Monday. Higher yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, a key interest rate benchmark, could strike gold further and expose it to lower prices, he said.
Yields spiked above 3 percent for the first time in more than two years last Friday. Gold traditionally becomes cheaper as interest rates rise, partly because investors don’t accumulate any interest income from holding gold, unlike bonds.
“We’re treading the bottom now,” CPM Group commodities trader Carlos Sanchez told IBTimes on Dec. 20. “Look for prices to tick up in the second half of 2014. … The longer prices stay at this level, the more pent-up demand will build for these metals.”
Sanchez doesn’t see gold prices falling below $1,100/oz in 2014, with its sister silver unlikely to fall below $17/oz.
Remarkable economic growth and stock market rallies in 2013 may have already peaked, leading to more modest headlines in 2014. That translates into a potential boon to gold prices, said Sanchez. Good economic growth and bullish equities are widely seen as negative for gold, since investors desert gold for more profitable stocks in happy economic times.
Midterm Congressional elections in late 2014 may also factor into gold prices, as political uncertainty and posturing about debt or deficits usually impacts gold markets.
Before then, investors will watch Chinese New Year gold sales closely, since the holiday is a traditionally strong season for gold buying by the Chinese, who look set to become the world’s biggest consumers of gold this year.  
But in an ominous early sign, gold exports from Hong Kong to China fell 42 percent on a monthly basis in November, according to the South China Morning Post. That may be because Chinese consumers have already snapped up tonnes of the metal earlier this year, when prices plunged and bargain buyers flocked to jewelry stores.
China’s Lunar New Year falls on Jan. 31, 2014, this year. If gold prices don’t look to edge up significantly in 2014, though, Chinese buyers could be less aggressive, further pressuring prices.
India, often crowned the world’s largest consumer of gold in past years, has been unhelpful for gold this year. Government import restrictions have led to smuggling, gold shortages and soaring prices for ordinary Indian consumers, leading many to switch to silver.
Severe Indian restrictions on gold are likely to be lifted in 2014, Capital Economics’ commodities researcher Julian Jessop told IBTimes in an email. That’s partly because trade pressures should ease as oil prices fall and Indian exports grow.
“The authorities cannot hold back demand forever and an easing of restrictions may be a popular move before (or after) the elections,” wrote Jessop on Dec. 24.  
Gold bugs and bears alike will also look to the World Gold Council’s next quarterly demand report in February.
Signals for gold are all cautious into 2014, though many agree prospects should improve because Federal Reserve tapering, gold’s most influential driver this year, has already been baked into prices.
“The New Year might be met by a fresh wave of selling appetite. Apart from some anticipated index-related buying in early 2014 and seasonal Chinese New Year physical demand, there is limited scope for a cushion,” wrote UBS AG (VTX:UBSN) analyst Joni Teves in a Dec. 19 note. “The current macro picture provides little incentive for investors to get back into gold right now.”
At the very least, gold in 2014 probably won’t drag down the other precious metals – silver, platinum and palladium – as much as it has this year, wrote ETF Securities analyst Mike McGlone in an email to IBTimes.
Meanwhile, pressure prevails, with traders watching as prices hover near the 2013 low of $1,179/oz.
“We think its just a matter of several more trading days before the June low of $1,179 is taken out,” wrote precious metals analyst Edward Meir in his last, “less than cheerful” note of 2013.